Kevin Xu - Interconnected

Robin Zeng: CATL’s Prodigious Gambler

As Europe reels from Northvolt’s bankruptcy, as Goldman Sachs writes off its $900 million wager to a big fat zero in this embarrassing failure, CATL chugs along. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) is the world’s largest power battery maker, and has

Topics: US-China• AI• Scaling Law•

What Does Hitting Scaling Law Limit Mean for US-China AI Competition

Less effective export control, less doomsday scenario

Topics: US-China•

See the World Accurately

Updated thoughts on the US, China, and US-China

Topics: Quarterly and Annual Letters• Investing• Mr. Market•

Q3 2024: Clock Starts Anew

Plus reactions to big tech earnings and election day "playbook"

Topics: IPO• Alibaba• Mr. Market•

Time to Let Ant IPO!

Or the IPO "wealth drain" will continue

Topics: AI• Cloud War•

($) The US-China AI Gap Widens in 2026

Nvidia Blackwell moves the "chip war" to the "cloud war"

Topics: Semiconductor• TikTok•

TikTok and Semiconductors -- Contributions for the Asia Society

Hi all, I’m switching things up a bit to share a couple of recent contributions I did for the Asia Society, spanning from the latest development in the TikTok legal saga to semiconductors and GPU smuggling in China. (I’ll be back in

Topics: Mr. Market• China•

Is China Investable Now?

Understanding David Tepper's "Everything Everything" Strategy

Topics: AI• Developer•

GitLab, GitHub, the AI Model Divide

From PMF to UMF (UI Model Fit)

Topics: Huawei• Apple•

($) Apple vs Huawei: Boomer vs Startup

A defiant Huawei tries to upstage Apple with a trifold phone. Will it work?

Topics: Antitrust• AI•

NVIDIA's Antitrust Probe is a "Pick One from Two" Problem

NVIDIA notched yet another record this week. This time it is its single day 9.5% drop on September 3 that amounted to a $278.9 billion evaporation in market cap – the equivalent of more than three Intel’s. It is probably not the

Nashville and the 45 Second Commute

As we approach Labor Day weekend (if you are in the US or Canada), I’d like to share my latest (and perhaps final) location change: Nashville, Tennessee! Rest assured, while the music industry, zero state income tax, or (god forbid) the Hawk Tuah

Topics: Alibaba• Delisting•

($) Alibaba (Finally) Gets Its Retail Fanbase

Thanks to Congress and the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act

Topics: AI• US-China•

3x3 AI Video Matchup: US vs China

The Paris Olympics may be over, but who says heated competition in bizarrely mutated sporting events only seen at the Olympics fueled by irrationally intense nationalism should stop? As a lifelong basketball fan, one of the more bizarrely mutated Olympic events is 3x3 basketball.

Topics: Investing•

When Volatility is High, Berkshire Calms Me Down

Before we get into our post today, I hope you check out the most recent episode of the Sinica Podcast, one of my favorite pods out there, where I chop it up with Kaiser Kuo and Paul Triolo on all things China when it

Topics: Quarterly and Annual Letters•

H1 2024 Performance Letter: Arrogant Humility

Welcome to Interconnected Capital’s first half (H1) of 2024 investment performance letter, which I write on a quarterly basis. (You can find my Q1 letter here.) To new and old readers alike, a friendly reminder: I run a global technology equity portfolio focused

Topics: AI• Facebook• Open Source•

($) Llama 3.1 and Its Geopolitical Implications

Allowing output for training, synthetic data use, and more!

Topics: AI•

WSJ, Odd Lots Podcast, Third Plenum on GenAI

I’m on the road this week in NYC and Austin, so today’s post will be a short one and won’t be my usual column-style essay. Instead, it’s a compilation of some recent media appearances elsewhere and a succinct (and hopefully

Topics: Middle East• AI•

Swing Vote of Global AI Competition: the Middle East

The global AI competition is often framed as a 1-on-1 battle between the US and China, with a “Cold War II” undertone as the backdrop. In this tussle, there is one region that is growing more powerful and critical to which side will eventually

Topics: AI• Cloud Industry•

($) OpenAI Bans China

This API ban signals a phase shift from “chip war” to “cloud war”

Topics: Industrial Policy• AI• Geopolitics•

When Two “Presidents” Debate

What Trump 2.0 means for AI and tech, US-China, Industrial Policy, and Being an Asian American

Topics: Nvidia• AI•

($) Software is Why Nvidia Will Not Become Cisco

Topics: Cloud Industry• AI• Investing•

Software Is Not Dead

But AI is killing “land and expand”

Topics: Cloud Industry• AI• Alibaba•

($) China Cloud Price War

Topics: Cloud Industry• Huawei• AI•

Huawei Cloud and “AI in the Box”

Will “AI in a box” become a thing? Huawei Cloud is certainly trying to make it so. By packaging GPUs, networking, server racks, other hardware, and AI models all together, Huawei Cloud is pushing the adoption of AI infrastructure by putting everything an enterprise