Kevin Xu - Interconnected

The Real DeepSeek Moment Just Arrived

Last week, DeepSeek released a new version of its model to much fanfare. Except the fanfare did not come from the model’s performance improvement, hybrid nature (combining both reasoning and non-reasoning into a single model, like GPT-5), or strong agentic capabilities. It came

Topics: US-China•

($) P(Grand Bargain) = 55%

A US-China deal is the appropriate season finale for a reality TV, “deal junkie” president

Topics: Open Source• AI•

From DeepSeek-R1 to gpt-oss

Finally, some positive-sum competition between the US and China

Topics: Nvidia• Huawei•

($) H20 and the Broken Export Control Debate

Guess what, Chinese tech companies hate Huawei too!

Topics: AI• Cloud War•

Five Interesting Things about the White House AI Action Plan

Open Source, American AI in a Box, GPU Tracking, Sub-Systems Export Control, "Try First" Culture

Topics: Quarterly and Annual Letters•

Q2 2025 Update: Equanimity Investing

Welcome to the Q2 2025 update of Interconnected Capital. To new and old readers alike, a friendly reminder: I run a global technology long-only fund focused on investing in both the hardware and software “picks and shovels” of the interconnected global digital AI economy.

Topics: Profiles• Intel•

($) Lip-Bu Tan: the Tiger Dad Intel Needs

The most successful tech CEO and VC no one has heard of

Topics: Reflection•

A New Father's Reflections on the American Dream

One of my July 4th traditions is to do a crossfit hero workout at my local gym. This year, my gym chose the workout Witten. I finished it in 51 minutes and 41 seconds this morning; it was a slog! Another one of my

Topics: Open Source• AI• Developer•

China's Structural Advantage in Open Source AI

Not just my words, Ion Stoica’s too.

Topics: Oracle• Cloud War•

($) Oracle Cloud: the Largest "Chinese Cloud" in America?

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure or Overseas Chinese Infrastructure?

Topics: US-China•

Contours of a US-China Tech Grand Bargain

The first (known) phone call between Trump and Xi since the inauguration finally happened this week. Soon after the call, the new round of negotiation will take place in London on Monday, June 9th. A new wrinkle is added to the negotiation dynamic – Commerce

Topics: Cloud War• Sovereign AI•

($) Two Charts That Matter in Mary Meeker’s AI Deck

Topics: Semiconductor• Xiaomi•

“Overachievement”: Xiaomi's Decade-Long Chip Development Journey

Today’s post is a translation and transcreation of an article published by Jiemian News, a Chinese language tech outlet, that profiled Xiaomi’s homegrown chip-making backstory. While I rarely do translations, this article was sufficiently interesting and included some fascinating insights and anecdotes

Topics: AI•

($) Is 2025 the Year of the AI RIF?

AI RIF is the best, if not only, form of walking the walk to show what AI can really do

Topics: Cloud War• Middle East• Sovereign AI•

The Middle East Swings to American AI

With two important, long-term implications

Topics: Quarterly and Annual Letters•

($) Q1 2025: Trust the Process, Trust the Temperament

Topics: VC• AI• Geopolitics•

Benchmark Invests in Manus: VC Math vs Geopolitics Math

An economically rational deal if you are a true early stage VC

Topics: Huawei• AI• Cloud Industry•

($) Huawei's Global AI Ambition: The Core Depends on The Soul

Topics: Nvidia• AI• Supply Chain•

NVIDIA: Made in America (by Taiwan)

NVIDIA made a major announcement in its efforts to onshore advanced chip manufacturing to the US this week, by leading (demanding?) its ecosystem of partners to produce its Blackwell products in Texas and Arizona. This move, combined with recent reports that possible export controls