Fog of War

The analogies of “war” are used often to describe and analyze non-war situations – businesses, sports, electoral politics. We now have a real war between Russia and Ukraine, and the “fog of war” between clarity and confusion is as thick as ever. Because there is too much noise in the constant, play-by-play coverage of media reporting and live discussions on platforms like Twitter, I’ve decided to share a few links in today’s post of materials that I found useful to clear the “fog of war” in my brain. I hope they can help you in the same way (per usual, I’ve included links from both English and Chinese sources).

“What Putin Fears Most” (English Source: Journal of Democracy)

This article provides ample historical evidence to debunk a mainstream narrative that Putin’s motivation for war was to deter NATO’s expansion. Putin has never been that concerned about NATO’s expansion, and even publicly entertained the possibility of having Russia join it one day. He is concerned about the expansion of Western-style democracy.

“Why Is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning” (English Source: New York Times)

This Op-Ed analyzes Putin’s track record of successfully using his military in a limited way to achieve outsized political gain in recent years and growing Russia's sphere of influence. Why stop doing what’s working? As Chris Miller (the author) further expounded on the ChinaTalk podcast, he was not surprised by Putin’s attack; he was more surprised that many people were surprised by the attack.

“Thread on the Historical Reasons behind Putin calling Ukrainians Neonazis” (English Source: Twitter)

When I first heard Putin’s speech effectively declaring war on Ukraine, I was confused by his use of the word “denazify”. This thread clears up that confusion with detailed historical context dating back to the early years of WWII, when Russia under Stalin was the main reason why Nazi Germany’s military became so strong.

“Computer chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions” (English Source: Washington Post)

The most interesting part of this article is that GlobalFoundries’ internal compliance process for the US’s Russia sanctions is roughly the same as what the company needs to do to comply with the sanctions on Huawei.

“Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Introducing Some Historical Perspectives” (Chinese Source: Tuzhuxi)

This commentary by the Tuzhuxi account uses the Russian-Ukraine conflict to push on the legitimacy of the notion of “self-determination”. Among Western democracies, “self-determination” is seen as an inalienable right of nationhood. However, in Tuzhuxi’s eyes, it is a convenient tool to achieve certain geopolitical ends. The election that gave Mongolia independence after WWII is cited as an example.

“How big is the impact of the US and Europe deploying "financial nuclear weapon" on Russia?” (Chinese Source: guru-lama)

With the US and EU countries beginning to cut off Russian financial institutions from SWIFT, some Chinese financial commentators (like this one) are openly speculating on this moment as an opportunity for the RMB to increase its international influence.